Premier League · Sunday 13 September, 16:30

Manchester UnitedvManchester City

Published before kickoff · model v2 · View the GitHub record ↗

Full-time result

Home

30%

Draw

25%

Away

45%

Total goals

Over 2.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

39%

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Estimate updated Sunday 6 September · updated daily at 03:00 UK time

Match preview

AI-generated

Manchester City are the model’s measured favourite, with a 45% chance of an away win, compared with 30% for Manchester United and 25% for the draw. United ended last season strongly, winning five of their final six league matches and keeping three clean sheets. City won three of their last six, although they scored three goals in each of those victories. Recent meetings have produced mixed results: United won 2-0 in January after City had won the previous contest 3-0, while the five listed meetings include one draw. The total-goals forecast leans towards over 2.5 goals at 61%, with under 2.5 at 39%.

Written by a language model from the numbers on this page and historical results only.

Probabilities come from a market-anchored statistical ensemble. See the methodology for how they are produced and verified.