Match probabilities, published before kickoff.

Statistical forecasts for the Premier League and Championship, logged to a public GitHub record before every match starts.

Model v2 · updated 6 Sept 2026

22 forecasts published for round 1
Backtest log loss 0.97 vs market 0.95 (4,061 matches, out-of-sample)
Live scoring starts 21 Aug 2026

This round's selections

A few matches from today's card, grouped by what the numbers say about them. Every selection is published before kickoff and scored against the frozen version.

No selections for now. Today's remaining matches are either already under way or too close to kickoff to feature.

Sunday 6 September

Manchester United

H 28%D 27%A 45%

H 56%D 25%A 19%

Saturday 12 September

Nottingham Forest

H 49%D 26%A 25%

H 39%D 27%A 34%

H 51%D 26%A 23%

H 64%D 20%A 16%

Tottenham Hotspur

H 48%D 27%A 26%

H 14%D 23%A 62%

Sunday 13 September

Brighton and Hove Albion

H 22%D 25%A 53%

Manchester United

Manchester City

H 30%D 25%A 45%

Monday 14 September

Newcastle United

H 38%D 27%A 35%

Friday 18 September

H 37%D 27%A 36%

Saturday 19 September

Tottenham Hotspur

H 42%D 26%A 32%

Brighton and Hove Albion

H 28%D 28%A 45%

H 54%D 25%A 21%

Newcastle United

Nottingham Forest

H 54%D 25%A 21%

Sunday 20 September

H 35%D 26%A 39%

H 41%D 28%A 31%

Manchester City

Manchester United

H 32%D 27%A 40%

Bars show home, draw and away probability. Open a match for the full breakdown.

What the percentages mean

58% means that in ten matches with similar conditions, we expect that result about six times. The highest percentage is our best estimate, not a promise. Oracle90 is a data science project; it does not offer betting advice.